Recent data from ADP indicates a significant slowdown in pay increases for workers who change jobs, marking the slowest growth rate in over three years. In September, the median year-over-year pay increase for job switchers dropped to 6.6%, down from 7.3% in August. This decline represents the lowest growth rate since April 2021. The disparity between pay increases for those who switch jobs and those who remain in their positions has also narrowed, with job stayers experiencing a 4.7% pay increase in August. This trend contrasts sharply with the higher pay gains seen during the "Great Resignation" period of 2022-2023. ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson, noted that the shrinking gap in pay gains suggests a less dynamic labor market. She described the current situation as one of equilibrium, although it remains uncertain how long this stability will last. While the rapid pay increases of previous years have cooled, the overall job market remains resilient. ADP's latest report revealed that the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, surpassing economists' expectations of 125,000 and significantly higher than the 99,000 jobs added in August. This marks a rebound after five months of declining job additions. Despite these positive job growth figures, other indicators suggest a potential slowdown in the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decrease in the quits rate, which fell to 1.9% in August from 2% in July, the lowest level since June 2020. Richardson pointed out that the lack of substantial pay increases for job changers may discourage workers from leaving their current positions, indicating a shift towards stability in the labor market. Looking ahead, Richardson anticipates that this trend of stable growth may characterize labor market data for the remainder of 2024, as both quits and layoffs remain low, leading to muted worker turnover while hiring continues. The upcoming release of the September jobs report is expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting the addition of 150,000 nonfarm payroll jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Overall, while the labor market shows signs of stability, the dynamics of job switching and pay increases are evolving, reflecting broader economic trends and worker sentiments.